Kevin, with the market has gone from "Buy the Dip" to "Sell any Rally", do you see that construct as being completed already? Would appreciate thoughts. Also as one of your other commentators detailed it would be good to have indicative sizing so it's clear how convicted (or not) you are and to shape context on the overall post. Hope this feedback helps.
Kevin, with the market has gone from "Buy the Dip" to "Sell any Rally", do you see that construct as being completed already? Would appreciate thoughts. Also as one of your other commentators detailed it would be good to have indicative sizing so it's clear how convicted (or not) you are and to shape context on the overall post. Hope this feedback helps.
Hi Stephen. Thanks for the feedback. great suggestion on conviction levels. Once we settle down, I am going to make something up on the portfolio side and please feel free to send me suggestions.
As for the shift in tone. I am not sure. I think most people believe the bull market dead and that this is now a bear market that will take a year or two to play out. To me, it depends on two things:
1. If the virus ends up being worse than I fear
2. If the gov't ends up doing less than I hope
However, if it plays out like I believe it will (virus not as bad as market anticipates and stimulus ends up being greater than most forecast), then I could see a return to the bull market. I think that's the outlier call right now. Few are forecasting that sort of return.
I guess I would say, the market probably assigns a 1 in 10 chance of that happening and I am probably more like 1 in 2. Or something like.
Kevin, with the market has gone from "Buy the Dip" to "Sell any Rally", do you see that construct as being completed already? Would appreciate thoughts. Also as one of your other commentators detailed it would be good to have indicative sizing so it's clear how convicted (or not) you are and to shape context on the overall post. Hope this feedback helps.
Hi Stephen. Thanks for the feedback. great suggestion on conviction levels. Once we settle down, I am going to make something up on the portfolio side and please feel free to send me suggestions.
As for the shift in tone. I am not sure. I think most people believe the bull market dead and that this is now a bear market that will take a year or two to play out. To me, it depends on two things:
1. If the virus ends up being worse than I fear
2. If the gov't ends up doing less than I hope
However, if it plays out like I believe it will (virus not as bad as market anticipates and stimulus ends up being greater than most forecast), then I could see a return to the bull market. I think that's the outlier call right now. Few are forecasting that sort of return.
I guess I would say, the market probably assigns a 1 in 10 chance of that happening and I am probably more like 1 in 2. Or something like.