Hi Stephen. Thanks for the feedback. great suggestion on conviction levels. Once we settle down, I am going to make something up on the portfolio side and please feel free to send me suggestions.
As for the shift in tone. I am not sure. I think most people believe the bull market dead and that this is now a bear market that will tak…
Hi Stephen. Thanks for the feedback. great suggestion on conviction levels. Once we settle down, I am going to make something up on the portfolio side and please feel free to send me suggestions.
As for the shift in tone. I am not sure. I think most people believe the bull market dead and that this is now a bear market that will take a year or two to play out. To me, it depends on two things:
1. If the virus ends up being worse than I fear
2. If the gov't ends up doing less than I hope
However, if it plays out like I believe it will (virus not as bad as market anticipates and stimulus ends up being greater than most forecast), then I could see a return to the bull market. I think that's the outlier call right now. Few are forecasting that sort of return.
I guess I would say, the market probably assigns a 1 in 10 chance of that happening and I am probably more like 1 in 2. Or something like.
Hi Stephen. Thanks for the feedback. great suggestion on conviction levels. Once we settle down, I am going to make something up on the portfolio side and please feel free to send me suggestions.
As for the shift in tone. I am not sure. I think most people believe the bull market dead and that this is now a bear market that will take a year or two to play out. To me, it depends on two things:
1. If the virus ends up being worse than I fear
2. If the gov't ends up doing less than I hope
However, if it plays out like I believe it will (virus not as bad as market anticipates and stimulus ends up being greater than most forecast), then I could see a return to the bull market. I think that's the outlier call right now. Few are forecasting that sort of return.
I guess I would say, the market probably assigns a 1 in 10 chance of that happening and I am probably more like 1 in 2. Or something like.