thanks Kevin - in this case why not going long short end tips? is it because short end tips yields are way too negative so the likelyhood to have a negative return (after inflation) is almost certain?
thanks Kevin - in this case why not going long short end tips? is it because short end tips yields are way too negative so the likelyhood to have a negative return (after inflation) is almost certain?
Flower Smuggler - one of the smartest big macro old investors I know recently told me that this what he has been telling people to buy - 2 year TIPS. And I have no trouble with owning them. The reason I don't is that I am so bullish on inflation, I want exposure for longer-duration inflation.
But, if you were only in the "reflation" camp as opposed to the "inflation" camp, then this trade would be ideal.
However, you are also correct in that 2-year TIPS are yielding -2.17%, so really, how much are you going to make? Maybe inflation ends up being 4%, so you make a shade under 2%. That's good, but I would rather benefit from the wholesale change in expectations about future inflation.
So, I am actually long 30-year TIPS. I hedge them with ultra bond futures, and then trade my steepeners seperately.
thanks Kevin - in this case why not going long short end tips? is it because short end tips yields are way too negative so the likelyhood to have a negative return (after inflation) is almost certain?
Flower Smuggler - one of the smartest big macro old investors I know recently told me that this what he has been telling people to buy - 2 year TIPS. And I have no trouble with owning them. The reason I don't is that I am so bullish on inflation, I want exposure for longer-duration inflation.
But, if you were only in the "reflation" camp as opposed to the "inflation" camp, then this trade would be ideal.
However, you are also correct in that 2-year TIPS are yielding -2.17%, so really, how much are you going to make? Maybe inflation ends up being 4%, so you make a shade under 2%. That's good, but I would rather benefit from the wholesale change in expectations about future inflation.
So, I am actually long 30-year TIPS. I hedge them with ultra bond futures, and then trade my steepeners seperately.
Hope this helps!
Kev