I'm watching incomes. I have gone back to the 1960's through present comparing commodity prices, personal incomes, productivity and CPI/Inflation.
Broad commodity prices have not lead inflation, nor reduced it. Commodity prices it seems have oscillated around personal incomes and, ultimately, cpi.
I'm watching incomes. I have gone back to the 1960's through present comparing commodity prices, personal incomes, productivity and CPI/Inflation.
Broad commodity prices have not lead inflation, nor reduced it. Commodity prices it seems have oscillated around personal incomes and, ultimately, cpi.
Conclusion: If commodity prices continue to rise without incomes rising, the only result, it seems to me, will be that people will buy less. Classic price/quantity supply/demand dynamics.
I think that there will be no doubt that commodities going up will cause people to buy less of stuff, but don't forget - the government through fiscal is creating a lot more dollars. And before anyone says that we saw this in 2008 and there was no inflation - we didn't see this at all. We used monetary policy back then. This is fiscal. And it's different.
My gut says we do need incomes to rise for true inflation, but I am curious as to what you are seeing on incomes because everything I have seen shows that incomes have exploded higher recently.
I'm watching incomes. I have gone back to the 1960's through present comparing commodity prices, personal incomes, productivity and CPI/Inflation.
Broad commodity prices have not lead inflation, nor reduced it. Commodity prices it seems have oscillated around personal incomes and, ultimately, cpi.
Conclusion: If commodity prices continue to rise without incomes rising, the only result, it seems to me, will be that people will buy less. Classic price/quantity supply/demand dynamics.
Interested in your thoughts.
Hi Thomas,
Can you share some of your graphs? kevin@themacrotourist.com
I think that there will be no doubt that commodities going up will cause people to buy less of stuff, but don't forget - the government through fiscal is creating a lot more dollars. And before anyone says that we saw this in 2008 and there was no inflation - we didn't see this at all. We used monetary policy back then. This is fiscal. And it's different.
My gut says we do need incomes to rise for true inflation, but I am curious as to what you are seeing on incomes because everything I have seen shows that incomes have exploded higher recently.
Thanks!
Kev