You had a post about energy debt a while back when the Saudis and Russians decided to wage an oil price war. Wouldn't the upcoming defaults and potential downgrades put a dent in your bullish thesis?
You had a post about energy debt a while back when the Saudis and Russians decided to wage an oil price war. Wouldn't the upcoming defaults and potential downgrades put a dent in your bullish thesis?
Yes, I agree that this will be a problem for the market. And don't mistake me as bullish on oil. I think Russia/Saudis are going to try to crush American shale. But in doing so, they are going to lease every tanker floating on the ocean. Rates are exploding. So when I buy tankers, it's almost BECAUSE of the upcoming disaster coming in oil.
If there was no response from the gov'ts, then I would probably be much less bullish (and maybe even bearish). But I keep hearing "whatever it takes" and the gov'ts just keep raising numbers. When that doesn't work, they simply do more. Not only that, but there is a sea change about fiscal.
During the 2008 crisis, there was all sorts of calls about "we couldn't afford that." (and to be fair, we shouldn't have bailed out the bankers.)
But there are no more calls about not been able to afford anything. They are spending and printing in larger and larger amounts.
That determination is why I think it's tough to be bearish. I might be wrong, but that's my thinking.
You had a post about energy debt a while back when the Saudis and Russians decided to wage an oil price war. Wouldn't the upcoming defaults and potential downgrades put a dent in your bullish thesis?
Yes, I agree that this will be a problem for the market. And don't mistake me as bullish on oil. I think Russia/Saudis are going to try to crush American shale. But in doing so, they are going to lease every tanker floating on the ocean. Rates are exploding. So when I buy tankers, it's almost BECAUSE of the upcoming disaster coming in oil.
If there was no response from the gov'ts, then I would probably be much less bullish (and maybe even bearish). But I keep hearing "whatever it takes" and the gov'ts just keep raising numbers. When that doesn't work, they simply do more. Not only that, but there is a sea change about fiscal.
During the 2008 crisis, there was all sorts of calls about "we couldn't afford that." (and to be fair, we shouldn't have bailed out the bankers.)
But there are no more calls about not been able to afford anything. They are spending and printing in larger and larger amounts.
That determination is why I think it's tough to be bearish. I might be wrong, but that's my thinking.