THE SAHM RECESSION INDICATOR

The 'tourist examines this "perfect" recession indicator and looks at market behaviour around the trigger

For the better part of the past year-and-a-half, many market participants have consistently underestimated America’s economic resiliency. Nothing sums this up better than the record 14 months in a row when economists’ non-farm payrolls’ forecasts missed the mark.

Another one of my favourite anecdotes regarding the overwhelmingly pessimistic sentiment was…