THE SAHM RECESSION INDICATOR
The 'tourist examines this "perfect" recession indicator and looks at market behaviour around the trigger
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For the better part of the past year-and-a-half, many market participants have consistently underestimated America’s economic resiliency. Nothing sums this up better than the record 14 months in a row when economists’ non-farm payrolls’ forecasts missed the mark.
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Another one of my favourite anecdotes regarding the overwhelmingly pessimistic sentiment was…