WHAT’S REALLY HOLDING UP THE US DOLLAR

One of the big surprises of the past year has been the resilience of the US dollar. Back in 2024, when Trump won the election, markets were excited about the new President and sent the Fed Trade-weighted US Dollar Index soaring. That rally was short-lived as traders figured out that Trump was serious about tariffs a…

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This is not what capitulation looks like

For the first time in a while, we’re experiencing a little fear in the markets. It feels like it’s been forever in coming, and many market participants seem genuinely shocked that stocks can go down. Last week, VIX pushed up to 19, the Bloomberg High-Yield OAS widened out to 338 bps, and there can be no denying th…

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1. Stock market sentiment

Question: All of a sudden, there seems to be a lot of bearish sentiment out there. The CNN Fear & Greed index just hit “EXTREME FEAR” reading. Are we due for a bounce in the stock market?

There is no doubt that over the past week, the market has increased its concern about the AI trade. The CNN Fear & Greed Index experienced a dr…

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Earlier, in September, I paused the billing on the newsletter to take a trip with my wife, hiking in the German Alps. Some folks have asked for more information, so I have put together this post.

We went with an outfit called Macs Adventures.

They have a bunch of different trips, but we chose one in Bavaria because my wife loves the mountains, but wanted hikes that were not “mountaineering.” She was looking more for walks through the mountains rather than scrambles up ridges.

The one we settled on was Bavarian Alps: Hiking the Salt Trail.

In terms of logistics, you’re completely on your own for the hiking. In the morning, you leave your luggage by the front of your hotel, and Macs Adventures ensures it arrives at your next destination. You, on the other hand, are responsible for navigating to the next hotel.

But fret not — they give you instructions and a live location map. Here are a couple of examples of our day of hiking:

This part of Germany was clearly marked, with many signs helping you along:

We loved it because we could proceed at our pace, and enjoy the countryside.

Sometimes, the walk looked like this:

Other times, we were up in the mountains:

Every night, you had the opportunity to eat at some wonderful idyllic German inns:

One of my favourite parts was all the cows. They were down in the valley:

But also up in the mountains!

And yeah, I couldn’t resist talking selfies with my pals:

And I’ll just leave you with some pictures from the trip:

Thanks for reading!
Kevin Muir
the MacroTourist

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TAX ALPHA, MARKET RISK

One of the great mysteries of the past few years has been the collapse in stock correlation. It used to be that stocks would often move broadly together. When you got a rally in the S&P 500, most stocks would rise. Sure, some would rise more than others. Some might even go down — but the general direction of most stocks was often t…

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I am currently hiking in the Bavarian Alps and will be unable to post and update, so I have paused the billing for the MacroTourist letter while I am not writing.

What does this mean for you?

If you are a current subscriber, you don’t need to do anything. Your subscription (whether it is monthly or yearly) will be automatically extended by the period in which I am not writing.

If you are not a subscriber but would like to become one, unfortunately substack does not allow enrolment while billing is paused. Send me an email at kevin@themacrotourist.com and I will make sure we get you going when I return.

Also, I am doing a little business in Zurich at the tail end of my trip. My plans have recently changed and I have some availability to meet on Thursday, September 17th or during the morning of Friday, September 18th. If you would like me to swing by your office and say hello, just send me an email. Would love to meet you!

Thanks — and don’t break anything while I am away,
Kevin Muir
the MacroTourist

PS: if you are interested in seeing a recent piece I wrote, check out “CANADA: AMERICA’S BEST CUSTOMER.”

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The other day, after writing my piece about buying mid-term election vol, my buddy Vincent Deluard from StoneX messaged me. He wanted to highlight the fact that index volatility is low because stock correlation has collapsed, but underneath the surface, lurks a hidden danger.

I have written about this before, but I’ve been warning about this for so long,…

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I’ve been sitting on my hands for what seems like forever waiting to publish this piece. You see, it’s a long volatility call. Every day that nothing blows up is another day that my insurance gets a little bit cheaper. Squeezing out a few extra weeks saves a lot of money.

Yet, I feel like the idiot with an Outer Banks beach house without hurricane insur…

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“Every government policy is to grow nominal GDP, but they’re pissed when 10s start chasing 7% nominal.”

Harris Kupperman

The other day I was chatting with my buddy Kuppy, and he made a comment about the absurdity of governments being upset with higher rates. It really resonated with me. I thought to myself, “According to the President of the United States…

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