The MacroTourist

M'tourist Private Feed Recap

Kevin Muir — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:52:00 GMT

WATCH YOUR BIDS (s2026 e21)

Kevin Muir — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 02:22:19 GMT

SOMETIMES TRADING IS THAT SIMPLE: LONG GOLD AGAIN

Kevin Muir — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 14:55:47 GMT

THE FFQ6 SELLER: WILL HE BE RIGHT ABOUT THIS FOMC MEETING?

Kevin Muir — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 01:59:10 GMT

THE FFQ6 SELLER: WILL HE BE RIGHT ABOUT THIS FOMC MEETING?

I suspect many equity folks don’t appreciate the uniqueness of this week’s FOMC meeting. For the past few decades, the Federal Reserve has operated on the premise of guiding markets whenever there is a change in policy. The rationale being that the Fed didn’t want to surprise markets. For example…

THE FORWARD-DISCOUNTING MACHINE DOESN'T CARE ABOUT YOUR EPS CHART

Kevin Muir — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 02:21:05 GMT

SOMETIMES THE FORWARD-DISCOUNTING MACHINE DOESN’T CARE ABOUT YOUR EPS CHART

Over the last half-year, whenever I mention that I am worried about the US stock market, the best counter-argument has been, “Earnings are rising. Don’t overthink it.”

And I understand why folks might say that.

In fact, back in 2024, I wrote a piece arguing that EPS revisions are …

WATCH YOUR BIDS (s2026 e20)

Kevin Muir — Sun, 26 Jul 2026 01:14:01 GMT

CLIQUET OPTIONS: WALL STREET'S INSURANCE POLICY AGAINST YOUR ETF BLOWING UP

Kevin Muir — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 04:08:29 GMT

CLIQUET OPTIONS: WALL STREET’S INSURANCE POLICY AGAINST YOUR ETF BLOWING UP

All right, my previous post, LEVERAGED ETFs: DAILY REBLANCING, ETERNAL CONSEQUENCES, hopefully explained how leveraged ETFs work. This write-up will focus on the underappreciated risks associated with these products — both to the individual holders and also the macro risks to the…

LEVERAGED ETFs: DAILY REBLANCING, ETERNAL CONSEQUENCES

Kevin Muir — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 04:07:04 GMT

LEVERAGED ETFs: DAILY REBLANCING, ETERNAL CONSEQUENCES

We need to talk about leveraged ETFs. You know the type of securities that I am talking about. It’s that ETF your neighbour bought that has gone up 235% over the past month. And it’s not just the annoying idiot you share a driveway with that has bought these levered ETFs. Lately, it feels like everyo…

WATCH YOUR BIDS (s2026 e19)

Kevin Muir — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 02:38:56 GMT

KATAYAMA'S WARNING SHOT

Kevin Muir — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:35 GMT

MAKE JAPAN GREAT AGAIN: CURRENCY EDITION

Lately, I have received some flak for being negative on AI stocks. I am a big boy, and sticking your neck out comes with the territory of writing a letter, but if you read my comments closely, I have continually focused on shorting the MAG7. And when it comes to that call, it’s actually been not that shabby. On a …

WATCH YOUR BIDS (s2026 e18)

Kevin Muir — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 03:33:48 GMT

OI&E: THERE'S A FINE LINE BETWEEN CLEVER AND CIRCULAR

Kevin Muir — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 01:42:29 GMT

WHEN THE EQUITY FUNDING MARKET SCREAMS AND NOBODY LISTENS

Kevin Muir — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 17:54:08 GMT

Folks, this next chart is important. I know it will seem like a boring “funding” discussion, but I implore you to stop and think about the implications of this seemingly innocuous development. It’s screaming danger, and yet few are listening.

WATCH YOUR BIDS (s2026 e17)

Kevin Muir — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 02:31:37 GMT

This week’s included clips

For those who are interested in the specific clips that I have highlighted in the attached podcast, please find them below. Don’t forget that they are all included (along with my commentary) in the actual podcast.

WARSH AND PEACE: THE FED MEANS BUSINESS

Kevin Muir — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 03:54:52 GMT

WARSH AND PEACE: THE FED MEANS BUSINESS

During today’s FOMC press conference, I was chatting with a buddy who was getting updates from his equity sales coverage trader.

“It’s more dovish than expected.”

“He’s going to delay any action with all these committees so he can come up with a way to manipulate inflation readings lower.”

“Non-event.”

I was like, huh…

IF IT'S OBVIOUS, IT'S OBVIOUSLY WRONG

Kevin Muir — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 03:23:21 GMT

IF IT’S OBVIOUS, IT’S OBVIOUSLY WRONG

Trading is hard. Don’t let anyone tell you differently. And if you think I am mistaken, then I beg you to be careful, as there is a high likelihood you’re about to have your teeth kicked in by the market.

I also don’t understand winning traders that rub salt in the wounds of the folks on the other side of their trade…

WATCH YOUR BIDS (s2026 e16)

Kevin Muir — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 04:14:36 GMT

DOVISH DREAMS, HAWKISH MATH

Kevin Muir — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 20:00:40 GMT

DOVISH DREAMS, HAWKISH MATH

Back in 1992, Stanford economics professor, John B. Taylor proposed a rule to determine the appropriate level of Central Bank overnight interest rates. Affectionately known as the Taylor rule, this model takes the difference between the target inflation rate and the actual rate, and combines that with the difference between th…

THE COUCH CUSHION ECONOMY

Kevin Muir — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 15:58:18 GMT

THE COUCH CUSHION ECONOMY

On Friday, SpaceX will start trading in what will be the largest IPO in history. And it’s not like it’s squeaking over the line to capture that title. No, according to Renaissance Capital, SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO raise will be almost three times larger than the previous record holder (Saudi Aramco).

THE SHARPEST RALLY YOU'LL EVER SEE

Kevin Muir — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 02:44:51 GMT

THE SHARPEST RALLY YOU’LL EVER SEE

For most of the past couple of months, when folks have asked about gold stocks or opportunities in Latin America or almost anything else, I’ve had the same response: no one cares. The market has been myopically fixated on one thing — and one thing only — artificial intelligence. Sure, a few weeks back in February they a…